A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
